Unless you don’t drive, consume any media, or watch the news, you’ve probably heard about the fuel crisis gripping the world at the moment. The longer the war drags on, the worse it’s going to get, so the government is going to have to start thinking of a plan to keep our country on the road, and they need to figure it out fast. There’s been a number of ideas thrown around about what we could do, but “carless days” and a levelled fuel rationing system (similar to the COVID lockdown levels) are the most plausible responses in this situation.
Where we need to start, though, is at why exactly we’re running out of fuel. The middle east holds most of our international oil reserves, with the Arabian peninsula (countries in the vicinity of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain) containing approximately 60% of the world’s oil, and it also just so happens to be one of the world’s most consistent conflict zones. The oil stores are a major part of this, as when a country upsets them, they have the ability to make it much harder to get petrol over to where it’s needed. This is what brings the price of fuel up to what it has become recently. The $3+ per litre we’ve started paying is a direct result of the conflict in Iran, as they bomb fuel reserves along the Arabian Peninsula, and stop ships from taking oil through the straight of Hormuz which is the major point of exit from the area.
The New Zealand government needs to make a call on what we’re going to do to prevent price gouging at the pump, and to make sure that the fuel reserves we already have aren’t going to run out, but because of Luxon’s historically poor decision timing, nothing has been organised just yet. The solution implemented during the great oil crisis in 1979 was to create ‘carless days”. These carless days were seen as a preferred alternative to a potential rationing scheme, as it was easy to start up and easy to suspend in the event of the fuel crisis ending. The concept involved people choosing their own day to not drive, and using public transport or biking or walking instead of using their car and their own petrol. These were largely ineffective, with a fuel consumption reduction of about 3.6%, even though 88% of the country followed their chosen day rules. This could be effective in today’s society, but it would create havoc for students and those with work that requires a lot of travel.
The second option has already been considered and is lined up in the background for when it’s necessary… a four-level rationing system that would restrict who can buy fuel, and exactly how much they’re able to acquire. This would initially have no effect on us, just while the government monitors our fuel usage, but would later go on to place limits on who can buy fuel, and exactly how much. The possibility of us running out of oil is slim, but not zero, so this strategy would work to make sure we conserve what we have. At the time of writing, we currently have reasonable fuel stores, and ships are slowly moving away from Hormuz, but we are looking at another few weeks of rough fuel prices at the very least, and these new restrictions may come in if we begin to run low. Level one of fuel lockdown allows us to trade as usual (and is the level we are at now) and then fuel distribution is slowly restricted until it is only accessible for emergency services. What the impact on people in the respects of work and schooling would be is unclear- we could be looking at a potential lockdown situation, or just a closing of schools and businesses for some days of the week as they try to keep us from using up our sweet, precious oil.
In conclusion, this whole fuel crisis is a series of unknowns, run by a government that is frankly trying their best in this time of adversity. Oil and fuel restrictions are complex issues that have all sorts of implications worldwide, and may only be solved by the war subsiding, and regular trading resuming. All we can do at this point is follow the rules given to us, pay through the nose at the pump, and hope that the war comes to an end before we have to pay $4 a litre, or before there is necessary action enacted by the government.
