While we might have been sleeping, partying, and recovering from Covid over Summer, the world did not pump the brakes to wait for us to get over our hangovers – I remember getting home from Laneway and dumping five onion rings from the airfryer into my plate while my twitter feed was suddenly filled with announcements of tensions ramping up in Iran. Things keep spinning, and it seems like they only keep spinning faster and faster. It’s hard to take a breath, find your footing, and really know what all this stuff flying past you on the algorithm is. Thankfully, we were able to get in contact with the University’s very own Al Gillespie (and that’s A-L, not A-I… but we might need to digitally preserve him at some point) for some lightning fast takes on the Summer’s biggest news and what they might mean for our three little islands before the leaves start falling.
Starting, of course, with the stuff happening in our backyards, between the chilly-bin, the barbecue, and your uncles arguing about which Christopher to vote in:
The 2026 election (Or as I like to call it, the Chrisis):
Al: It’s gonna be a tight contest.
Te Pati Maori’s ‘abolish prisons’ post:
Al: It’s just not feasible. As long as there are dangerous people there’s gonna be a need to incarcerate them.
Greens-Labour coalition:
Al: Seems like a natural fit.
New Zealand’s Summer weather:
Al: Terrible. And I caught covid.
The Mount Maunganui Landslide:
Al: A tragedy, and unfortunately a tragedy we may see more of in the future. We need more resilience and awareness built into the system. Extreme events are becoming more commonplace. We can’t just solve this problem ourselves, though- international cooperation is needed.
Wellington’s sewage leak:
Al: A third world problem. It’s unacceptable that this type of thing can happen in 21st century New Zealand. We need more investment in infrastructure which has been slow coming for decades.
Auckland Harbour Bridge road toll
Al: Yea, a user-paid transport system makes sense.
Judith “The Crusher” Collins retiring from politics
Al: A politician who has undoubtedly had a huge impact on New Zealand society. She’ll be hard to follow up.
Mount Taranaki gaining legal personhood
Al: Giving personhood to natural entities makes sense philosophically and it should be welcomed. It grants them more robust legal protection.
Proposed reformations to regional councils
Al: It’s important to have democracy that works on local levels. If this enhances that, then good.
OCR remaining at 2.25%
Al: The government’s working hard to try and keep our economy under control and this is consistent with those measures.
INTERNATIONALLY…
Asides from America falling for the old Viking marketing trick of naming the icy one the word green and the sort of less icy one after ice, it seems like the big blue flag of international, rules-based unity is becoming pretty threadbare.
The EU distancing itself from Trump
Al: Very significant. International relations are in a state of flux. Many of the predictions we have following a rules-based order are falling apart. Traditional allies are not as robust in their friendships as they used to be. New Zealand’s going to have ot make a choice between pointing towards the U.S. or pointing towards Europe, and Europe right now looks like the beacon.
Tensions in Iran
Al: Likelihood of war is fifty-fifty. It’ll depend on negotiations. Trump can probably get a deal on restricting Iran’s nuclear capability, but he’s less likely to get a deal on ballistic missiles and establishing the people’s right to protest and dissent. It’s a near run to whether there’ll be war.
Epstein Files
Al: Everyone should be held to their crimes. This type of transparency is a good thing.
Surge of A.I.
Al: Potentially very positive. Also, potentially very negative. The international regulation of this type of technology in regard to war is going to be very important.
Fourth year of the war in Ukraine
Al: Same length now as the first world war and with no end in sight. It’s unsustainable and dangerous. We may have to accept an unpalatable deal to secure peace.
Keir Starmer facing pressure to resign
Al: He’s got a difficult time ahead. His challenges will be great. Britain is facing difficulties economically and in terms of identity and it’s orientation with the rules-based order. He’s following a lot of pressure from Trump to follow him instead of international law, which we’re seeing with the Chagos islands.
United States abstaining from COP30 and G20
Al: We’re entering a world of power, not negotiation and rules.
The doomsday clock at 85 seconds to midnight
Al: Should be frontpage. We’ve never been this close to metaphorical apocalypse in history. We have seen a failure of arms control with New START not being renewed. Rising militarism. Increasing arms budgets. There is a very limited framework for control. It makes sense to be concerned.
Closing statements for students:
Al: Times are very difficult right now. It’s important for students to remain optimistic, and to find areas where cooperation is possible and to find kindness and tolerance for one another. The burden is going to be on the next generations coming in. There’s going to be a lot of work for these next generations.
